This weekend, the UFC makes its long awaited return to Japan with a title fight in the lightweight division between the former WEC champion, Benson Henderson, and the UFC champion, Frankie Edgar.
In this fight, I foresee Edgar coming away with the victory. The big reason? Speed and boxing. Henderson is a great pressure fighter who imposes his size and wrestling ability to overwhelm his opponents. Problem with this however is that Edgar's skills negate these advantages. Frankie's speed is a huge asset for him. At his size, he naturally would fit in well at 145 rather than 155. However, he has held his own against bigger lightweights through his speed and ability to control distance on his feet with his boxing which should be considered among the best in MMA. Should bigger opponents try to utilize their wrestling ability to get the fight to the ground, Edgar's wrestling background has served him well to get back to his feet or prevent the takedown altogether (as evidenced in his fights with Gray Maynard).
I do think that Henderson's best strategy to winning this fight is to impose his size and wrestling against the cage and try to win the fight in the 4th and 5th rounds, using his endurance and athleticism to wear down the smaller Edgar. But in the end, I feel the more talented Edgar will win the fight in a very close, tightly contested fight, via decision. He just has too many tools in the arsenal for someone like Henderson, who is relatively one dimensional as a wrestler with average striking and power.
In the co-main event, Quinton Jackson faces off with Ryan Bader in a fight with major implications for the light-heavyweight division. Coming off his loss to champion Jon Jones, Rampage Jackson will be looking to rebound with a win to try and get back into the race for the title as soon as possible. Looking to give Rampage his second straight loss will be collegiate wrestling standout, Ryan Bader, who will be looking to win his second straight fight after losing the previous two.
The fight will be determined by who can dictate where the fight is fought. Rampage will look to keep the fight standing and utilize his boxing against Bader, who has shown a vulnerable chin and is at a disadvantage on the feet. In contrast, Bader will look to use his NCAA-championship level wrestling to take the fight to the ground where Rampage has shown to be less than capable. In the end, I believe Bader is able to impose his will and defeat the veteran via decision or stoppage via ground and pound.
Predictions for the other fights on the card:
Kongo over Hunt via stoppage
Shields over Akiyama via decision
Boetsch over Okami via TKO
Hioki over Palaszekski via decision
Lauzon over Pettis via submission
There be the fights, enjoy the weekend peoples!
-Saxed
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
What We Learned: Reflections on The UFC of FOX 2
- Rashad Evans is a better, more well rounded MMA fighter than Phil Davis. Admittedly, I thought Davis would find a way to take the fight to Rashad, get it to the ground, and grind out a victory. Turns out for five rounds, Rashad took control of the fight and defeated a fighter similar in stature and makeup as the current champion, Jon Jones. Granted, Jones is a more dynamic striker than Davis (who looked unsure of himself when trading with Rashad all night), Rashad is a former training partner of Jones and you would have to think has a good understanding of how to attack the champion. Coming into the Davis fight, I thought that Rashad would be too small and ineffective to defeat Davis, let alone the champion. After the fight, I have a higher appreciation of what Rashad Evans can do and he is a good challenger for the phenom Jon Jones (I still wouldnt pick Rashad over Jones, but I do think he'll give him a good fight).
- Chael Sonnen is more entertaining as a fighter than I would have admitted before. He is a fighter that doesnt take a step back - its just not in his vocabulary. For that, I respect him and appreciate that whomever he fights, his formula remains unchanged - boxing to close the distance to allow for a tie-up against the cage and eventually a takedown where he can grind and ground and pound. Sure, winning via decision fight after fight isnt the most ideal way to do things, but thats not to say he isnt trying to win and instead is just looking to survive in his fights. Hes aggressive and strikes with hammers in his fists. And I havent even started on his post-fight interviews which (although clearly inspired/ripped off from pro wrestlers of past and present) are still entertaining to watch if nothing else because no one else does it in MMA.
- Demian Maia is the new gatekeeper at MW. Great grappler, quality wins against established fighters, will never become THE guy though because of his lack of striking and athleticism to take him over the top.
- Chris Weidman may be a great prospect, but his standup will get exposed more and more as he progresses against the more polished and well rounded fighters of the division. May also want to improve his conditioning since he appear gassed and worn out towards the end of his fight with Maia. Granted, he wasnt training to fight Maia, but against quality competition, he cannot gas the way that he did on Saturday night.
- The production value of the entire event is something to be improved. They need to include the intros and production videos that are usually seen from the PPVs to help set up the fights. Setting up the fight via fighter analysts Q&A just doesnt work imo. If you want to introduce new viewers to the sport, you need to build up the intrigue and drama between the two fighters and thats not currently done with the format being used by the UFC. Showcase the fighters who are fighting and build up the drama and suspense leading up to the opening bell and you'll attract viewers much easier.
That be it for now, stayed tuned for a break down of Diaz-Condit sometime later this week. Until then, keep pointing to the stars and your legs crossed.
- Saxed
- Chael Sonnen is more entertaining as a fighter than I would have admitted before. He is a fighter that doesnt take a step back - its just not in his vocabulary. For that, I respect him and appreciate that whomever he fights, his formula remains unchanged - boxing to close the distance to allow for a tie-up against the cage and eventually a takedown where he can grind and ground and pound. Sure, winning via decision fight after fight isnt the most ideal way to do things, but thats not to say he isnt trying to win and instead is just looking to survive in his fights. Hes aggressive and strikes with hammers in his fists. And I havent even started on his post-fight interviews which (although clearly inspired/ripped off from pro wrestlers of past and present) are still entertaining to watch if nothing else because no one else does it in MMA.
- Demian Maia is the new gatekeeper at MW. Great grappler, quality wins against established fighters, will never become THE guy though because of his lack of striking and athleticism to take him over the top.
- Chris Weidman may be a great prospect, but his standup will get exposed more and more as he progresses against the more polished and well rounded fighters of the division. May also want to improve his conditioning since he appear gassed and worn out towards the end of his fight with Maia. Granted, he wasnt training to fight Maia, but against quality competition, he cannot gas the way that he did on Saturday night.
- The production value of the entire event is something to be improved. They need to include the intros and production videos that are usually seen from the PPVs to help set up the fights. Setting up the fight via fighter analysts Q&A just doesnt work imo. If you want to introduce new viewers to the sport, you need to build up the intrigue and drama between the two fighters and thats not currently done with the format being used by the UFC. Showcase the fighters who are fighting and build up the drama and suspense leading up to the opening bell and you'll attract viewers much easier.
That be it for now, stayed tuned for a break down of Diaz-Condit sometime later this week. Until then, keep pointing to the stars and your legs crossed.
- Saxed
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Breaking Down UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis
On Saturday, the UFC presents its 2nd live event on the FOX network with 3 fights that have important title implications. Lets break them down and choose some winners:
Evans vs. Davis
In the main event for the night, former light-heavyweight champion, Rashad Evans steps into the cage to fight the up and coming prospect that is Phil Davis. With the winner of the fight likely next in line for a shot at the divisional title holder, Jon Jones, this is one very important fight.
On paper, Evans appears to be the more experienced and accomplished fighter having won the title before and an impressive list of victories over names such as Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Quentin Jackson. However, Davis' resume is just as impressive being a four-time All-American wrestler at Penn State, winning a national title in 2008. Coming off of quality wins against Tim Boetsch and Antonio Rogerio Noguiera, Davis is riding a wave of momentum heading into this fight.
The thing that Im focusing on in this fight is the size discrepancy between the two fighters. Going into the fight, Davis is considerably bigger compared to Evans, as he will enjoy a 3 inch height and a 4 inch reach advantage over the former light-heavyweight champion. As a result, I expect the fact to be decided by who is able to impose their will on their opponent.
For Evans, he will look to stay on the outside and possibly slip and counter the strikes that Davis throws. I'd look for Evans to work the overhand right-left hook combination then slip out of range from striking and grappling distance. Evans has a considerable speed and quickness advantage over his opponents on most nights and I expect it to be the same this Saturday night. Look for him to exploit this and if successful, a victory via KO/stoppage or decision for the Niagara Falls, NY product.
For Davis, I see him employing a strategy that will emphasize his size and wrestling ability (which I feel is better than Evans'). Expect Davis to use his strikes to close the distance and cause a lockup between him and Evans against the cage. From there, look for him to use knees to try and distract Evans enough to get the fight to the ground where he can look to ground and pound or submit Rashad.
In the end, I think Davis' wrestling ability and size are displayed in this fight and he stops Evans with strikes. Davis, like Jones, enjoys a considerable size advantage over most fighters in the LHW division. Like Jones, Davis has shown steady improvement in his fighting ability, both on the feet and on the ground. I think he wins in convincing fashion over Evans and Saturday becomes the night where the world takes notice that Phil Davis has arrived and is ready to take on the world champion.
Prediction? - Davis via stoppage in round 2
Sonnen vs Bisping
In what you would consider the co-main event for the night, the antithesis to Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen, faces off with Britain's finest, Michael Bisping. With a win, both fighters catapult into the number one contender spot for Anderson Silva's middleweight title. A win by Sonnen sets up arguably the most anticipated rematch in UFC history as Sonnen has been the only fighter in UFC history to make Silva look human and not god-like.
Breaking down this fight, it just seems the cards are stacked against Bisping. Bisping is going to be the smaller fighter and will need to catch Sonnen with a strike on the feet or a submission on the ground to beat Sonnen. In contrast, Chael Sonnen will likely look to impose his size and wrestling, take the fight to the ground and start to pound out a victory.
I just dont see Sonnen losing this fight outside of getting caught by Bisping. I see Bisping trying to keep distance and pick and pop from the outside. But once Bisping throws a strike, Sonnen will rush and close distance, get the fight against the cage, and eventually to the ground. Once on the ground, Sonnen's ground and pound should prove too overwhelming for the British fighter to try and attempt any submission off the ground.
Prediction? - Sonnen via 3rd round TKO/Stoppage with ground and pound
Rest of the Card Predictions
Maia vs. Weidman - I like Weidman to continue his undefeated record and win via decision. Look for him to keep the fight standing and against the cage when he can smother and use his size and wrestling ability to keep the fight in control. Maia certainly can catch outstanding wrestlers off guard (hes subbed Sonnen before), but I think Weidman strikes and uses his size to win a decision.
There be the picks, enjoy the night of fights!
-Saxed
Evans vs. Davis
In the main event for the night, former light-heavyweight champion, Rashad Evans steps into the cage to fight the up and coming prospect that is Phil Davis. With the winner of the fight likely next in line for a shot at the divisional title holder, Jon Jones, this is one very important fight.
On paper, Evans appears to be the more experienced and accomplished fighter having won the title before and an impressive list of victories over names such as Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Quentin Jackson. However, Davis' resume is just as impressive being a four-time All-American wrestler at Penn State, winning a national title in 2008. Coming off of quality wins against Tim Boetsch and Antonio Rogerio Noguiera, Davis is riding a wave of momentum heading into this fight.
The thing that Im focusing on in this fight is the size discrepancy between the two fighters. Going into the fight, Davis is considerably bigger compared to Evans, as he will enjoy a 3 inch height and a 4 inch reach advantage over the former light-heavyweight champion. As a result, I expect the fact to be decided by who is able to impose their will on their opponent.
For Evans, he will look to stay on the outside and possibly slip and counter the strikes that Davis throws. I'd look for Evans to work the overhand right-left hook combination then slip out of range from striking and grappling distance. Evans has a considerable speed and quickness advantage over his opponents on most nights and I expect it to be the same this Saturday night. Look for him to exploit this and if successful, a victory via KO/stoppage or decision for the Niagara Falls, NY product.
For Davis, I see him employing a strategy that will emphasize his size and wrestling ability (which I feel is better than Evans'). Expect Davis to use his strikes to close the distance and cause a lockup between him and Evans against the cage. From there, look for him to use knees to try and distract Evans enough to get the fight to the ground where he can look to ground and pound or submit Rashad.
In the end, I think Davis' wrestling ability and size are displayed in this fight and he stops Evans with strikes. Davis, like Jones, enjoys a considerable size advantage over most fighters in the LHW division. Like Jones, Davis has shown steady improvement in his fighting ability, both on the feet and on the ground. I think he wins in convincing fashion over Evans and Saturday becomes the night where the world takes notice that Phil Davis has arrived and is ready to take on the world champion.
Prediction? - Davis via stoppage in round 2
Sonnen vs Bisping
In what you would consider the co-main event for the night, the antithesis to Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen, faces off with Britain's finest, Michael Bisping. With a win, both fighters catapult into the number one contender spot for Anderson Silva's middleweight title. A win by Sonnen sets up arguably the most anticipated rematch in UFC history as Sonnen has been the only fighter in UFC history to make Silva look human and not god-like.
Breaking down this fight, it just seems the cards are stacked against Bisping. Bisping is going to be the smaller fighter and will need to catch Sonnen with a strike on the feet or a submission on the ground to beat Sonnen. In contrast, Chael Sonnen will likely look to impose his size and wrestling, take the fight to the ground and start to pound out a victory.
I just dont see Sonnen losing this fight outside of getting caught by Bisping. I see Bisping trying to keep distance and pick and pop from the outside. But once Bisping throws a strike, Sonnen will rush and close distance, get the fight against the cage, and eventually to the ground. Once on the ground, Sonnen's ground and pound should prove too overwhelming for the British fighter to try and attempt any submission off the ground.
Prediction? - Sonnen via 3rd round TKO/Stoppage with ground and pound
Rest of the Card Predictions
Maia vs. Weidman - I like Weidman to continue his undefeated record and win via decision. Look for him to keep the fight standing and against the cage when he can smother and use his size and wrestling ability to keep the fight in control. Maia certainly can catch outstanding wrestlers off guard (hes subbed Sonnen before), but I think Weidman strikes and uses his size to win a decision.
There be the picks, enjoy the night of fights!
-Saxed
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
UFC 139 Plays
This weekend UFC 139 happens with some intriguing plays. Parlay Im gonna go with is as follows:
Shogun Rua vs Dan Henderson -> Pick Henderson at +100
Hendo at even money against Rua seems like a very nice price for me. Given, Rua is a superior striker, I think Hendo makes this an ugly fight against the cage and wins with a decision or TKO as a result of his right hand connecting. Hes coming off a nice string of wins via TKO which includes one against Fedor Emelianenko and the fact that this may be Hendo's last attempt at a title shot (as the winner of the fight is likely next in line for the title at 205 lbs), I like Hendo's chances of pulling off the mini-upset.
Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le -> Cung Le at -138
Wanderlei has been on a streak of losses lately and I expect that to continue against the strong technical striker, Cung Le. Granted, this is gonna be Le's biggest fight against the stiffest opponent that he has faced in his career and Silva is still a capable brawler with KO power, I still feel Le's technical ability on the feet will shine on Saturday night. And really, 2 wins in Wand's last 8 fights, dont like that trend at all if Im betting in favor of Wand.
Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz -> Bader at -333
Earlier this year, Bader was considered by some to be the next big thing in MMA, but as a result of two losses, hes hit a speed bump in his career. I think Saturday night, he rebounds nicely. I think Bader's size (6'1 vs 5'11) will help allow him to dictate however he wants the fight to go - whether on the feet (where hes the better striker) or to the ground (where hes the more accomplished wrestler). Only way Bader loses the fight (in my mind) is if he screws it up for himself and doesnt execute a good game plan (see ground and pound).
Parlay pays out at +349....only real fight that Id be concerned with is that main event as Rua can dominate Hendo with good technical striking with outside leg kicks.
If youre not comfortable with the Hendo play, I'd suggest taking Story over Kampmann with Story at -138 as a favorite. That parlay would payout at +288, still about 3/1 on your money which is decent.
In any event, enjoy the fights!
-Saxed
Shogun Rua vs Dan Henderson -> Pick Henderson at +100
Hendo at even money against Rua seems like a very nice price for me. Given, Rua is a superior striker, I think Hendo makes this an ugly fight against the cage and wins with a decision or TKO as a result of his right hand connecting. Hes coming off a nice string of wins via TKO which includes one against Fedor Emelianenko and the fact that this may be Hendo's last attempt at a title shot (as the winner of the fight is likely next in line for the title at 205 lbs), I like Hendo's chances of pulling off the mini-upset.
Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le -> Cung Le at -138
Wanderlei has been on a streak of losses lately and I expect that to continue against the strong technical striker, Cung Le. Granted, this is gonna be Le's biggest fight against the stiffest opponent that he has faced in his career and Silva is still a capable brawler with KO power, I still feel Le's technical ability on the feet will shine on Saturday night. And really, 2 wins in Wand's last 8 fights, dont like that trend at all if Im betting in favor of Wand.
Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz -> Bader at -333
Earlier this year, Bader was considered by some to be the next big thing in MMA, but as a result of two losses, hes hit a speed bump in his career. I think Saturday night, he rebounds nicely. I think Bader's size (6'1 vs 5'11) will help allow him to dictate however he wants the fight to go - whether on the feet (where hes the better striker) or to the ground (where hes the more accomplished wrestler). Only way Bader loses the fight (in my mind) is if he screws it up for himself and doesnt execute a good game plan (see ground and pound).
Parlay pays out at +349....only real fight that Id be concerned with is that main event as Rua can dominate Hendo with good technical striking with outside leg kicks.
If youre not comfortable with the Hendo play, I'd suggest taking Story over Kampmann with Story at -138 as a favorite. That parlay would payout at +288, still about 3/1 on your money which is decent.
In any event, enjoy the fights!
-Saxed
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Breaking Down Shogun vs. Jones
March 19 will be a significant date in the history of MMA as it will either solidify one fighter as an all-time great in the sport or signify the birth of a new super-star in the sport. Without further adieu, lets break down the main event of UFC 128.
Shogun v. Jones
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, former PRIDE Grand Prix champion and current holder of the UFC’s light heavyweight belt goes into arguably the toughest fight of his career against MMA’s uber-prospect Jon “Bones” Jones. In fact, as I write this sentence, Bones is a considerable favourite over the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist (-200 for Jones, Shogun at +160 according to one reputable online sportsbook). Why does the champion look to be the underdog in this fight? There are several good reasons.
For Shogun, the key to his success is in his Muay Thai and his ability to break his opponent down in the standup game, particularly with low kicks followed up with flurries of punches and knees from the clinch. However, there are two considerable issues that Shogun will need to face upon entering the octagon – size and wrestling.
With size, Jones will enjoy a considerable height (3 inches; 6’4 Jones vs. 6’1 Rua) and reach advantage (8.5 inches; 84.5 for Jones vs. 76 for Rua) over his adversary. The size difference will make it extremely difficult for Rua to land many effective strikes on his opponent. With wrestling, Shogun has shown to have had problems in his career against fighters who have a relatively good grappling game as all 3 losses in his career have come up against fighters with a grappling background (Mark Coleman, Babalu Sobral and Forest Griffin). Even in the rematch between Shogun and a much older Mark Coleman, Rua found himself struggling against the veteran wrestler, needing a late 3rd round KO to gain the victory. Jon Jones on the other hand is a former state and national wrestling champion at the high school and collegiate levels who just defeated Ryan Bader, a former collegiate wrestling champion himself, in a dominating performance.
In essence, this is as bad a matchup for Shogun that he could face – an adversary who will make it hard to exploit against with his strengths who will also look to exploit his own weaknesses on the ground. So how does Shogun solve the Jones puzzle? I believe that if Shogun ends up victorious on Saturday night, it will be a result of an early knockout or stoppage as a result of strikes. I think from the word go, Shogun will need to look to counter off of any strikes that Jones tries to throw and hope something solid connects which he can then look to finish off of. Shogun obviously has the power in his repertoire as a fighter, indicated by his 16 knockouts from his 19 wins. And as shown from the finish of the Machida rematch, Rua is certainly able to counter the strikes of an unorthodox opponent. For those who don’t recall, Rua countered off of a lead left by Machida by an overhand right which knocked Machida to the ground leading to the finish of the fight. So, the formula to success is there for Shogun.
In addition, early in any fight most fighters are looking to find their range and see what their opponent is trying to do. Against a relative standup novice in Jones, who although impressive and flashy with his strikes, is not as technically gifted as Shogun, one could expect Rua to try and jump in and counter off of a lazy Jones lead jab or kick. This is especially true early in the fight when nerves may hit the young Jones. Expect Shogun to time a lazy jab (or even a lead left like Machida had tried) with a flurry of punches looking to connect with one haymaker to end the fight.
Now, with all that said, am I taking Shogun to win this fight? The answer: simply no. In the end, I believe Jones will win this battle and (in my opinion) win this fight in convincing fashion. The reason is quite simple: wrestling. I think come March 19, the game plan set by Jones and his trainer, Greg Jackson, will be quite simple – once you see an opening, go for the takedown and start with the ground and pound. If we know anything about Greg Jackson and his fighters, it is that they will look to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents (see Georges St. Pierre vs. anyone else here). As stated earlier, Shogun has shown in his losses that on the ground he will struggle. Jones is arguably the best wrestler Shogun will face in his career given his ability combined with size and athleticism. It does not require much insight to know what Greg Jackson is thinking what Jones will need to do against Shogun in order to win the fight.
In the end, I expect Jones to shoot for a takedown once he has the opportunity to close the distance safely. From there, expect Jones to grind out a victory using punches and elbows.
As great a champion as Shogun has been in his career, the combination of size, athleticism, wrestling, and Jackson game planning should all prove to be too much. Since his introduction to MMA and the UFC, people have touted Jon Jones as a future champion at light heavyweight and a possible two-weight title holder along the likes of Randy Couture. On March 19, I believe the future will finally arrive and Jones will be a UFC title holder.
Shogun v. Jones
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, former PRIDE Grand Prix champion and current holder of the UFC’s light heavyweight belt goes into arguably the toughest fight of his career against MMA’s uber-prospect Jon “Bones” Jones. In fact, as I write this sentence, Bones is a considerable favourite over the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist (-200 for Jones, Shogun at +160 according to one reputable online sportsbook). Why does the champion look to be the underdog in this fight? There are several good reasons.
For Shogun, the key to his success is in his Muay Thai and his ability to break his opponent down in the standup game, particularly with low kicks followed up with flurries of punches and knees from the clinch. However, there are two considerable issues that Shogun will need to face upon entering the octagon – size and wrestling.
With size, Jones will enjoy a considerable height (3 inches; 6’4 Jones vs. 6’1 Rua) and reach advantage (8.5 inches; 84.5 for Jones vs. 76 for Rua) over his adversary. The size difference will make it extremely difficult for Rua to land many effective strikes on his opponent. With wrestling, Shogun has shown to have had problems in his career against fighters who have a relatively good grappling game as all 3 losses in his career have come up against fighters with a grappling background (Mark Coleman, Babalu Sobral and Forest Griffin). Even in the rematch between Shogun and a much older Mark Coleman, Rua found himself struggling against the veteran wrestler, needing a late 3rd round KO to gain the victory. Jon Jones on the other hand is a former state and national wrestling champion at the high school and collegiate levels who just defeated Ryan Bader, a former collegiate wrestling champion himself, in a dominating performance.
In essence, this is as bad a matchup for Shogun that he could face – an adversary who will make it hard to exploit against with his strengths who will also look to exploit his own weaknesses on the ground. So how does Shogun solve the Jones puzzle? I believe that if Shogun ends up victorious on Saturday night, it will be a result of an early knockout or stoppage as a result of strikes. I think from the word go, Shogun will need to look to counter off of any strikes that Jones tries to throw and hope something solid connects which he can then look to finish off of. Shogun obviously has the power in his repertoire as a fighter, indicated by his 16 knockouts from his 19 wins. And as shown from the finish of the Machida rematch, Rua is certainly able to counter the strikes of an unorthodox opponent. For those who don’t recall, Rua countered off of a lead left by Machida by an overhand right which knocked Machida to the ground leading to the finish of the fight. So, the formula to success is there for Shogun.
In addition, early in any fight most fighters are looking to find their range and see what their opponent is trying to do. Against a relative standup novice in Jones, who although impressive and flashy with his strikes, is not as technically gifted as Shogun, one could expect Rua to try and jump in and counter off of a lazy Jones lead jab or kick. This is especially true early in the fight when nerves may hit the young Jones. Expect Shogun to time a lazy jab (or even a lead left like Machida had tried) with a flurry of punches looking to connect with one haymaker to end the fight.
Now, with all that said, am I taking Shogun to win this fight? The answer: simply no. In the end, I believe Jones will win this battle and (in my opinion) win this fight in convincing fashion. The reason is quite simple: wrestling. I think come March 19, the game plan set by Jones and his trainer, Greg Jackson, will be quite simple – once you see an opening, go for the takedown and start with the ground and pound. If we know anything about Greg Jackson and his fighters, it is that they will look to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents (see Georges St. Pierre vs. anyone else here). As stated earlier, Shogun has shown in his losses that on the ground he will struggle. Jones is arguably the best wrestler Shogun will face in his career given his ability combined with size and athleticism. It does not require much insight to know what Greg Jackson is thinking what Jones will need to do against Shogun in order to win the fight.
In the end, I expect Jones to shoot for a takedown once he has the opportunity to close the distance safely. From there, expect Jones to grind out a victory using punches and elbows.
As great a champion as Shogun has been in his career, the combination of size, athleticism, wrestling, and Jackson game planning should all prove to be too much. Since his introduction to MMA and the UFC, people have touted Jon Jones as a future champion at light heavyweight and a possible two-weight title holder along the likes of Randy Couture. On March 19, I believe the future will finally arrive and Jones will be a UFC title holder.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
UFC 111 - St. Pierre vs Alves
This week sees a major UFC event with two title scenes receiving significant attention (FINALLY!!!). Went 3-1 in my picks last weekend with the UFC Live event, so Im looking to carry that momentum forward. Going to run through my picks and analysis of the fights so sit back, grab some fruit juice, grab a pen and paper, and lets do this!
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2) vs Dan Hardy (23-6)
In Georges' return fight from an injury he sustained against Thiago Alves (whose fight with Jon Fitch has been called off as a result of Alves failing some medical tests), Georges St. Pierre goes up against England's Dan Hardy. First things first, Hardy has been on a roll of wins as of late - having experienced his last loss back in December of 2007. He has been, more or less, successful in the UFC and has been impressive with his ability to pick his opponents apart in the standup game. Hes a good fighter.
My pick for this fight however is overwhelmingly in favour of GSP. Heres the problem I see with Hardy when he fights GSP - the gap between the two in terms of wrestling ability is like night and day. GSP's wrestling is arguably the best in MMA today. He has dominated the likes of NCAA All-American wrestlers like Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Dan Hardy on the other hand had trouble in dealing with a savvy grappler like Akihiro Gono. I think by the 2nd round, people will soon realize just how outclassed Dan Hardy is when he goes up against GSP. I have GSP winning in a landslide, within 3 rounds if he wants to using an aggressive wrestling and ground and pound strategy.
UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-4) vs Shane Carwin (11-0)
In the fight that Im most looking forward to on the 27th, we have an interim championship fight at heavyweight with the winner being the number one contender for Brock Lesnar later this year. Whats great about these interim fights is that although theyre better at determining a number one contender than a definitive champion at a division, the fight gives fans a 5-round fight rather than the relatively short 3-rounders.
In terms of the fight itself, we have an intriguing battle between a good submission guy (Mir) and a good wrestler (Carwin), both of whom like to stand and trade punches. Mir looked impressive in his last few bouts against Minotauro Noguiera and Chieck Kongo, using his good boxing skills to defeat both fighters. In addition, Mir has looked bigger and stronger in his last fights since losing to Brock Lesnar as he tries to bulk up and move closer to the 265-pound mark that Lesnar cuts down to at the weigh-ins.
Carwin has looked just as impressive in his bouts at the UFC. Despite having a background in wrestling, he has rarely shown that skill as all of his bouts have displayed his punching power. Since debuting 5 years ago, Carwin has finished each of his 11 opponents within 2 rounds, never going the distance in his career. In his three fights in the UFC, which includes a win over former heavyweight contender Gabriel Gonzaga, he has used his explosive punching power to defeat his opponents.
In this fight, I expect it to start and end on the feet. I think Carwin will look to land a big right hand like hes shown in previous fights, while Mir will look to try and pick apart Carwin's defense. In the end, I like Mir to defeat Carwin via a KO or TKO. I think Mir's shown that his boxing skill is probably the best within the heavyweight division and he shouldnt be too intimidated by Carwin's power - again, he beat Kongo and Minotauro who have good boxing skills and power. Mir is a big step up for Carwin in terms of talent level. I just dont like his odds if all he has is a puncher's chance.
Ben Saunders (8-1-2) vs Jake Ellenberger (23-5)
I like Ellenberger and his wrestling more than I like Saunders' standup. Give me Ellenberger via the decision.
Jim Miller (16-2) Mark Bocek (8-2)
Both guys are really good at wrestling and submissions, Miller is the favourite, but Bocek is from my neck of the woods - give me Bocek with the upset via submission.
Kurt Pellegrino (20-4) vs Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
Pellegrino's a good wrestler, but Camoes has a good pedigree in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is coming off a nice string of wins. Give me Camoes by whatevs.
Anyways, there be the picks! Enjoy the fights and make sure to come back for the picks on UFC's Ultimate Fight Night on Wednesday!
-TheZar
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2) vs Dan Hardy (23-6)
In Georges' return fight from an injury he sustained against Thiago Alves (whose fight with Jon Fitch has been called off as a result of Alves failing some medical tests), Georges St. Pierre goes up against England's Dan Hardy. First things first, Hardy has been on a roll of wins as of late - having experienced his last loss back in December of 2007. He has been, more or less, successful in the UFC and has been impressive with his ability to pick his opponents apart in the standup game. Hes a good fighter.
My pick for this fight however is overwhelmingly in favour of GSP. Heres the problem I see with Hardy when he fights GSP - the gap between the two in terms of wrestling ability is like night and day. GSP's wrestling is arguably the best in MMA today. He has dominated the likes of NCAA All-American wrestlers like Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Dan Hardy on the other hand had trouble in dealing with a savvy grappler like Akihiro Gono. I think by the 2nd round, people will soon realize just how outclassed Dan Hardy is when he goes up against GSP. I have GSP winning in a landslide, within 3 rounds if he wants to using an aggressive wrestling and ground and pound strategy.
UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-4) vs Shane Carwin (11-0)
In the fight that Im most looking forward to on the 27th, we have an interim championship fight at heavyweight with the winner being the number one contender for Brock Lesnar later this year. Whats great about these interim fights is that although theyre better at determining a number one contender than a definitive champion at a division, the fight gives fans a 5-round fight rather than the relatively short 3-rounders.
In terms of the fight itself, we have an intriguing battle between a good submission guy (Mir) and a good wrestler (Carwin), both of whom like to stand and trade punches. Mir looked impressive in his last few bouts against Minotauro Noguiera and Chieck Kongo, using his good boxing skills to defeat both fighters. In addition, Mir has looked bigger and stronger in his last fights since losing to Brock Lesnar as he tries to bulk up and move closer to the 265-pound mark that Lesnar cuts down to at the weigh-ins.
Carwin has looked just as impressive in his bouts at the UFC. Despite having a background in wrestling, he has rarely shown that skill as all of his bouts have displayed his punching power. Since debuting 5 years ago, Carwin has finished each of his 11 opponents within 2 rounds, never going the distance in his career. In his three fights in the UFC, which includes a win over former heavyweight contender Gabriel Gonzaga, he has used his explosive punching power to defeat his opponents.
In this fight, I expect it to start and end on the feet. I think Carwin will look to land a big right hand like hes shown in previous fights, while Mir will look to try and pick apart Carwin's defense. In the end, I like Mir to defeat Carwin via a KO or TKO. I think Mir's shown that his boxing skill is probably the best within the heavyweight division and he shouldnt be too intimidated by Carwin's power - again, he beat Kongo and Minotauro who have good boxing skills and power. Mir is a big step up for Carwin in terms of talent level. I just dont like his odds if all he has is a puncher's chance.
Ben Saunders (8-1-2) vs Jake Ellenberger (23-5)
I like Ellenberger and his wrestling more than I like Saunders' standup. Give me Ellenberger via the decision.
Jim Miller (16-2) Mark Bocek (8-2)
Both guys are really good at wrestling and submissions, Miller is the favourite, but Bocek is from my neck of the woods - give me Bocek with the upset via submission.
Kurt Pellegrino (20-4) vs Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
Pellegrino's a good wrestler, but Camoes has a good pedigree in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is coming off a nice string of wins. Give me Camoes by whatevs.
Anyways, there be the picks! Enjoy the fights and make sure to come back for the picks on UFC's Ultimate Fight Night on Wednesday!
-TheZar
Monday, March 15, 2010
UFC Live - Vera vs. Jones
6 days from now, while the March Tournament winds down round 2, you can top off your weekend with a nice little UFC event that will feature the likes of Brandon Vera, Jon Jones, and Junior Dos Santos. As a result, Im going to drop my picks for the main card that night and the reasons for them. Here be the picks!
Brandon Vera (15-4) vs Jon Jones (10-1)
Im all in on Jon Jones. The guy seems to impress with every outing and I dont expect anything less in his matchup against Vera. Vera used to be a great prospect, but it just seems that hes never fulfilled that potential he showed early in his career right up to his stoppage of Frank Mir. It seems that since his little contract dispute with the UFC and the subsequent loss to Tim Sylvia, the guy just hasnt had that killer instinct about him when he goes up against stiff competition.
On the flip side, I think Jones has all the confidence in the world about him, hes connected himself with a good camp (TriStar Gym in Montreal and Greg Jackson in New Mexico), and his fight against Vera will be another exhibition of just how good this guy is. A win over Vera is just another step for Jones as he would be beating a good gatekeeper within the 205 division. I'll take Jones via a stoppage in the 2nd or 3rd. He'll get the fight to the ground because hes strong and a good Greco-Roman wrestler. Granted, Couture didnt get Vera on the ground easily, but then again I think Jones' size and strength should do the trick.
Junior dos Santos (10-1) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (15-4)
In another good matchup of young prospect versus veteran looking to rebound, we have heavyweight KO artist Junior dos Santos going up against Gabriel Gonzaga. For me, the fight is fairly easy to pick - Im taking dos Santos. Why? Because Gonzaga likes to throw on the feet. Despite the strong grappling pedigree, as of late it seems that he has been content to try and trade on the feet against other heavyweights. With that said, if he decides to trade with dos Santos, we're going to see one epic knockout. Cigano's hands are pure class and if Gonzaga looks to trade with dos Santos, this fight is over within the first round.
Cheick Kongo (19-5) vs Paul Buentello (27-11)
In another fight that should leave fans happy with a knockout, we have Cheick Kongo going up against Paul Buentello. Kongo is looking to rebound after a pair of losses that have really derailed his campaign for a heavyweight title shot. With a guy like Buentello, he has a fighter that is tailor made for him - someone who will look to stand and trade on the feet but also is smaller and almost exclusively uses his hands. Buentello has shown throughout his career to have problems with tall, stalking kickboxers (Overeem, Arlovski). I dont expect that trend to change all too much. Give me Kongo in the mid round to stop the fight.
Alessio Sakara (14-7) vs. James Irvin (14-5)
This fight should again be explosive. Dont really have too many insights into the fight other than I like Irvin to win via a KO. Irvin's the naturally bigger fighter. Yea, thats pretty much my analysis of the fight - give me the bigger guy. Sucks, I know, but Im just not very psyched for this fight like I am for the 3 that follow after.
So there be the picks! Enjoy that weekend of basketball and fighting! Should be a blast!
Until next time
-TheZar
Brandon Vera (15-4) vs Jon Jones (10-1)
Im all in on Jon Jones. The guy seems to impress with every outing and I dont expect anything less in his matchup against Vera. Vera used to be a great prospect, but it just seems that hes never fulfilled that potential he showed early in his career right up to his stoppage of Frank Mir. It seems that since his little contract dispute with the UFC and the subsequent loss to Tim Sylvia, the guy just hasnt had that killer instinct about him when he goes up against stiff competition.
On the flip side, I think Jones has all the confidence in the world about him, hes connected himself with a good camp (TriStar Gym in Montreal and Greg Jackson in New Mexico), and his fight against Vera will be another exhibition of just how good this guy is. A win over Vera is just another step for Jones as he would be beating a good gatekeeper within the 205 division. I'll take Jones via a stoppage in the 2nd or 3rd. He'll get the fight to the ground because hes strong and a good Greco-Roman wrestler. Granted, Couture didnt get Vera on the ground easily, but then again I think Jones' size and strength should do the trick.
Junior dos Santos (10-1) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (15-4)
In another good matchup of young prospect versus veteran looking to rebound, we have heavyweight KO artist Junior dos Santos going up against Gabriel Gonzaga. For me, the fight is fairly easy to pick - Im taking dos Santos. Why? Because Gonzaga likes to throw on the feet. Despite the strong grappling pedigree, as of late it seems that he has been content to try and trade on the feet against other heavyweights. With that said, if he decides to trade with dos Santos, we're going to see one epic knockout. Cigano's hands are pure class and if Gonzaga looks to trade with dos Santos, this fight is over within the first round.
Cheick Kongo (19-5) vs Paul Buentello (27-11)
In another fight that should leave fans happy with a knockout, we have Cheick Kongo going up against Paul Buentello. Kongo is looking to rebound after a pair of losses that have really derailed his campaign for a heavyweight title shot. With a guy like Buentello, he has a fighter that is tailor made for him - someone who will look to stand and trade on the feet but also is smaller and almost exclusively uses his hands. Buentello has shown throughout his career to have problems with tall, stalking kickboxers (Overeem, Arlovski). I dont expect that trend to change all too much. Give me Kongo in the mid round to stop the fight.
Alessio Sakara (14-7) vs. James Irvin (14-5)
This fight should again be explosive. Dont really have too many insights into the fight other than I like Irvin to win via a KO. Irvin's the naturally bigger fighter. Yea, thats pretty much my analysis of the fight - give me the bigger guy. Sucks, I know, but Im just not very psyched for this fight like I am for the 3 that follow after.
So there be the picks! Enjoy that weekend of basketball and fighting! Should be a blast!
Until next time
-TheZar
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