UFC 139 Plays

This weekend UFC 139 happens with some intriguing plays. Parlay Im gonna go with is as follows:

Shogun Rua vs Dan Henderson -> Pick Henderson at +100
Hendo at even money against Rua seems like a very nice price for me. Given, Rua is a superior striker, I think Hendo makes this an ugly fight against the cage and wins with a decision or TKO as a result of his right hand connecting. Hes coming off a nice string of wins via TKO which includes one against Fedor Emelianenko and the fact that this may be Hendo's last attempt at a title shot (as the winner of the fight is likely next in line for the title at 205 lbs), I like Hendo's chances of pulling off the mini-upset.

Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le -> Cung Le at -138
Wanderlei has been on a streak of losses lately and I expect that to continue against the strong technical striker, Cung Le. Granted, this is gonna be Le's biggest fight against the stiffest opponent that he has faced in his career and Silva is still a capable brawler with KO power, I still feel Le's technical ability on the feet will shine on Saturday night. And really, 2 wins in Wand's last 8 fights, dont like that trend at all if Im betting in favor of Wand.

Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz -> Bader at -333
Earlier this year, Bader was considered by some to be the next big thing in MMA, but as a result of two losses, hes hit a speed bump in his career. I think Saturday night, he rebounds nicely. I think Bader's size (6'1 vs 5'11) will help allow him to dictate however he wants the fight to go - whether on the feet (where hes the better striker) or to the ground (where hes the more accomplished wrestler). Only way Bader loses the fight (in my mind) is if he screws it up for himself and doesnt execute a good game plan (see ground and pound).

Parlay pays out at +349....only real fight that Id be concerned with is that main event as Rua can dominate Hendo with good technical striking with outside leg kicks.
If youre not comfortable with the Hendo play, I'd suggest taking Story over Kampmann with Story at -138 as a favorite. That parlay would payout at +288, still about 3/1 on your money which is decent.

In any event, enjoy the fights!

-Saxed