This weekend UFC 139 happens with some intriguing plays. Parlay Im gonna go with is as follows:
Shogun Rua vs Dan Henderson -> Pick Henderson at +100
Hendo at even money against Rua seems like a very nice price for me. Given, Rua is a superior striker, I think Hendo makes this an ugly fight against the cage and wins with a decision or TKO as a result of his right hand connecting. Hes coming off a nice string of wins via TKO which includes one against Fedor Emelianenko and the fact that this may be Hendo's last attempt at a title shot (as the winner of the fight is likely next in line for the title at 205 lbs), I like Hendo's chances of pulling off the mini-upset.
Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le -> Cung Le at -138
Wanderlei has been on a streak of losses lately and I expect that to continue against the strong technical striker, Cung Le. Granted, this is gonna be Le's biggest fight against the stiffest opponent that he has faced in his career and Silva is still a capable brawler with KO power, I still feel Le's technical ability on the feet will shine on Saturday night. And really, 2 wins in Wand's last 8 fights, dont like that trend at all if Im betting in favor of Wand.
Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz -> Bader at -333
Earlier this year, Bader was considered by some to be the next big thing in MMA, but as a result of two losses, hes hit a speed bump in his career. I think Saturday night, he rebounds nicely. I think Bader's size (6'1 vs 5'11) will help allow him to dictate however he wants the fight to go - whether on the feet (where hes the better striker) or to the ground (where hes the more accomplished wrestler). Only way Bader loses the fight (in my mind) is if he screws it up for himself and doesnt execute a good game plan (see ground and pound).
Parlay pays out at +349....only real fight that Id be concerned with is that main event as Rua can dominate Hendo with good technical striking with outside leg kicks.
If youre not comfortable with the Hendo play, I'd suggest taking Story over Kampmann with Story at -138 as a favorite. That parlay would payout at +288, still about 3/1 on your money which is decent.
In any event, enjoy the fights!
-Saxed
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Breaking Down Shogun vs. Jones
March 19 will be a significant date in the history of MMA as it will either solidify one fighter as an all-time great in the sport or signify the birth of a new super-star in the sport. Without further adieu, lets break down the main event of UFC 128.
Shogun v. Jones
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, former PRIDE Grand Prix champion and current holder of the UFC’s light heavyweight belt goes into arguably the toughest fight of his career against MMA’s uber-prospect Jon “Bones” Jones. In fact, as I write this sentence, Bones is a considerable favourite over the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist (-200 for Jones, Shogun at +160 according to one reputable online sportsbook). Why does the champion look to be the underdog in this fight? There are several good reasons.
For Shogun, the key to his success is in his Muay Thai and his ability to break his opponent down in the standup game, particularly with low kicks followed up with flurries of punches and knees from the clinch. However, there are two considerable issues that Shogun will need to face upon entering the octagon – size and wrestling.
With size, Jones will enjoy a considerable height (3 inches; 6’4 Jones vs. 6’1 Rua) and reach advantage (8.5 inches; 84.5 for Jones vs. 76 for Rua) over his adversary. The size difference will make it extremely difficult for Rua to land many effective strikes on his opponent. With wrestling, Shogun has shown to have had problems in his career against fighters who have a relatively good grappling game as all 3 losses in his career have come up against fighters with a grappling background (Mark Coleman, Babalu Sobral and Forest Griffin). Even in the rematch between Shogun and a much older Mark Coleman, Rua found himself struggling against the veteran wrestler, needing a late 3rd round KO to gain the victory. Jon Jones on the other hand is a former state and national wrestling champion at the high school and collegiate levels who just defeated Ryan Bader, a former collegiate wrestling champion himself, in a dominating performance.
In essence, this is as bad a matchup for Shogun that he could face – an adversary who will make it hard to exploit against with his strengths who will also look to exploit his own weaknesses on the ground. So how does Shogun solve the Jones puzzle? I believe that if Shogun ends up victorious on Saturday night, it will be a result of an early knockout or stoppage as a result of strikes. I think from the word go, Shogun will need to look to counter off of any strikes that Jones tries to throw and hope something solid connects which he can then look to finish off of. Shogun obviously has the power in his repertoire as a fighter, indicated by his 16 knockouts from his 19 wins. And as shown from the finish of the Machida rematch, Rua is certainly able to counter the strikes of an unorthodox opponent. For those who don’t recall, Rua countered off of a lead left by Machida by an overhand right which knocked Machida to the ground leading to the finish of the fight. So, the formula to success is there for Shogun.
In addition, early in any fight most fighters are looking to find their range and see what their opponent is trying to do. Against a relative standup novice in Jones, who although impressive and flashy with his strikes, is not as technically gifted as Shogun, one could expect Rua to try and jump in and counter off of a lazy Jones lead jab or kick. This is especially true early in the fight when nerves may hit the young Jones. Expect Shogun to time a lazy jab (or even a lead left like Machida had tried) with a flurry of punches looking to connect with one haymaker to end the fight.
Now, with all that said, am I taking Shogun to win this fight? The answer: simply no. In the end, I believe Jones will win this battle and (in my opinion) win this fight in convincing fashion. The reason is quite simple: wrestling. I think come March 19, the game plan set by Jones and his trainer, Greg Jackson, will be quite simple – once you see an opening, go for the takedown and start with the ground and pound. If we know anything about Greg Jackson and his fighters, it is that they will look to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents (see Georges St. Pierre vs. anyone else here). As stated earlier, Shogun has shown in his losses that on the ground he will struggle. Jones is arguably the best wrestler Shogun will face in his career given his ability combined with size and athleticism. It does not require much insight to know what Greg Jackson is thinking what Jones will need to do against Shogun in order to win the fight.
In the end, I expect Jones to shoot for a takedown once he has the opportunity to close the distance safely. From there, expect Jones to grind out a victory using punches and elbows.
As great a champion as Shogun has been in his career, the combination of size, athleticism, wrestling, and Jackson game planning should all prove to be too much. Since his introduction to MMA and the UFC, people have touted Jon Jones as a future champion at light heavyweight and a possible two-weight title holder along the likes of Randy Couture. On March 19, I believe the future will finally arrive and Jones will be a UFC title holder.
Shogun v. Jones
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, former PRIDE Grand Prix champion and current holder of the UFC’s light heavyweight belt goes into arguably the toughest fight of his career against MMA’s uber-prospect Jon “Bones” Jones. In fact, as I write this sentence, Bones is a considerable favourite over the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist (-200 for Jones, Shogun at +160 according to one reputable online sportsbook). Why does the champion look to be the underdog in this fight? There are several good reasons.
For Shogun, the key to his success is in his Muay Thai and his ability to break his opponent down in the standup game, particularly with low kicks followed up with flurries of punches and knees from the clinch. However, there are two considerable issues that Shogun will need to face upon entering the octagon – size and wrestling.
With size, Jones will enjoy a considerable height (3 inches; 6’4 Jones vs. 6’1 Rua) and reach advantage (8.5 inches; 84.5 for Jones vs. 76 for Rua) over his adversary. The size difference will make it extremely difficult for Rua to land many effective strikes on his opponent. With wrestling, Shogun has shown to have had problems in his career against fighters who have a relatively good grappling game as all 3 losses in his career have come up against fighters with a grappling background (Mark Coleman, Babalu Sobral and Forest Griffin). Even in the rematch between Shogun and a much older Mark Coleman, Rua found himself struggling against the veteran wrestler, needing a late 3rd round KO to gain the victory. Jon Jones on the other hand is a former state and national wrestling champion at the high school and collegiate levels who just defeated Ryan Bader, a former collegiate wrestling champion himself, in a dominating performance.
In essence, this is as bad a matchup for Shogun that he could face – an adversary who will make it hard to exploit against with his strengths who will also look to exploit his own weaknesses on the ground. So how does Shogun solve the Jones puzzle? I believe that if Shogun ends up victorious on Saturday night, it will be a result of an early knockout or stoppage as a result of strikes. I think from the word go, Shogun will need to look to counter off of any strikes that Jones tries to throw and hope something solid connects which he can then look to finish off of. Shogun obviously has the power in his repertoire as a fighter, indicated by his 16 knockouts from his 19 wins. And as shown from the finish of the Machida rematch, Rua is certainly able to counter the strikes of an unorthodox opponent. For those who don’t recall, Rua countered off of a lead left by Machida by an overhand right which knocked Machida to the ground leading to the finish of the fight. So, the formula to success is there for Shogun.
In addition, early in any fight most fighters are looking to find their range and see what their opponent is trying to do. Against a relative standup novice in Jones, who although impressive and flashy with his strikes, is not as technically gifted as Shogun, one could expect Rua to try and jump in and counter off of a lazy Jones lead jab or kick. This is especially true early in the fight when nerves may hit the young Jones. Expect Shogun to time a lazy jab (or even a lead left like Machida had tried) with a flurry of punches looking to connect with one haymaker to end the fight.
Now, with all that said, am I taking Shogun to win this fight? The answer: simply no. In the end, I believe Jones will win this battle and (in my opinion) win this fight in convincing fashion. The reason is quite simple: wrestling. I think come March 19, the game plan set by Jones and his trainer, Greg Jackson, will be quite simple – once you see an opening, go for the takedown and start with the ground and pound. If we know anything about Greg Jackson and his fighters, it is that they will look to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents (see Georges St. Pierre vs. anyone else here). As stated earlier, Shogun has shown in his losses that on the ground he will struggle. Jones is arguably the best wrestler Shogun will face in his career given his ability combined with size and athleticism. It does not require much insight to know what Greg Jackson is thinking what Jones will need to do against Shogun in order to win the fight.
In the end, I expect Jones to shoot for a takedown once he has the opportunity to close the distance safely. From there, expect Jones to grind out a victory using punches and elbows.
As great a champion as Shogun has been in his career, the combination of size, athleticism, wrestling, and Jackson game planning should all prove to be too much. Since his introduction to MMA and the UFC, people have touted Jon Jones as a future champion at light heavyweight and a possible two-weight title holder along the likes of Randy Couture. On March 19, I believe the future will finally arrive and Jones will be a UFC title holder.
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