Thursday, March 25, 2010

UFC 111 - St. Pierre vs Alves

This week sees a major UFC event with two title scenes receiving significant attention (FINALLY!!!). Went 3-1 in my picks last weekend with the UFC Live event, so Im looking to carry that momentum forward. Going to run through my picks and analysis of the fights so sit back, grab some fruit juice, grab a pen and paper, and lets do this!

UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2) vs Dan Hardy (23-6)

In Georges' return fight from an injury he sustained against Thiago Alves (whose fight with Jon Fitch has been called off as a result of Alves failing some medical tests), Georges St. Pierre goes up against England's Dan Hardy. First things first, Hardy has been on a roll of wins as of late - having experienced his last loss back in December of 2007. He has been, more or less, successful in the UFC and has been impressive with his ability to pick his opponents apart in the standup game. Hes a good fighter.

My pick for this fight however is overwhelmingly in favour of GSP. Heres the problem I see with Hardy when he fights GSP - the gap between the two in terms of wrestling ability is like night and day. GSP's wrestling is arguably the best in MMA today. He has dominated the likes of NCAA All-American wrestlers like Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Dan Hardy on the other hand had trouble in dealing with a savvy grappler like Akihiro Gono. I think by the 2nd round, people will soon realize just how outclassed Dan Hardy is when he goes up against GSP. I have GSP winning in a landslide, within 3 rounds if he wants to using an aggressive wrestling and ground and pound strategy.

UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-4) vs Shane Carwin (11-0)


In the fight that Im most looking forward to on the 27th, we have an interim championship fight at heavyweight with the winner being the number one contender for Brock Lesnar later this year. Whats great about these interim fights is that although theyre better at determining a number one contender than a definitive champion at a division, the fight gives fans a 5-round fight rather than the relatively short 3-rounders.

In terms of the fight itself, we have an intriguing battle between a good submission guy (Mir) and a good wrestler (Carwin), both of whom like to stand and trade punches. Mir looked impressive in his last few bouts against Minotauro Noguiera and Chieck Kongo, using his good boxing skills to defeat both fighters. In addition, Mir has looked bigger and stronger in his last fights since losing to Brock Lesnar as he tries to bulk up and move closer to the 265-pound mark that Lesnar cuts down to at the weigh-ins.

Carwin has looked just as impressive in his bouts at the UFC. Despite having a background in wrestling, he has rarely shown that skill as all of his bouts have displayed his punching power. Since debuting 5 years ago, Carwin has finished each of his 11 opponents within 2 rounds, never going the distance in his career. In his three fights in the UFC, which includes a win over former heavyweight contender Gabriel Gonzaga, he has used his explosive punching power to defeat his opponents.

In this fight, I expect it to start and end on the feet. I think Carwin will look to land a big right hand like hes shown in previous fights, while Mir will look to try and pick apart Carwin's defense. In the end, I like Mir to defeat Carwin via a KO or TKO. I think Mir's shown that his boxing skill is probably the best within the heavyweight division and he shouldnt be too intimidated by Carwin's power - again, he beat Kongo and Minotauro who have good boxing skills and power. Mir is a big step up for Carwin in terms of talent level. I just dont like his odds if all he has is a puncher's chance.

Ben Saunders (8-1-2) vs Jake Ellenberger (23-5)

I like Ellenberger and his wrestling more than I like Saunders' standup. Give me Ellenberger via the decision.

Jim Miller (16-2) Mark Bocek (8-2)

Both guys are really good at wrestling and submissions, Miller is the favourite, but Bocek is from my neck of the woods - give me Bocek with the upset via submission.

Kurt Pellegrino (20-4) vs Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)

Pellegrino's a good wrestler, but Camoes has a good pedigree in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is coming off a nice string of wins. Give me Camoes by whatevs.

Anyways, there be the picks! Enjoy the fights and make sure to come back for the picks on UFC's Ultimate Fight Night on Wednesday!

-TheZar

Monday, March 15, 2010

UFC Live - Vera vs. Jones

6 days from now, while the March Tournament winds down round 2, you can top off your weekend with a nice little UFC event that will feature the likes of Brandon Vera, Jon Jones, and Junior Dos Santos. As a result, Im going to drop my picks for the main card that night and the reasons for them. Here be the picks!

Brandon Vera (15-4) vs Jon Jones (10-1)

Im all in on Jon Jones. The guy seems to impress with every outing and I dont expect anything less in his matchup against Vera. Vera used to be a great prospect, but it just seems that hes never fulfilled that potential he showed early in his career right up to his stoppage of Frank Mir. It seems that since his little contract dispute with the UFC and the subsequent loss to Tim Sylvia, the guy just hasnt had that killer instinct about him when he goes up against stiff competition.

On the flip side, I think Jones has all the confidence in the world about him, hes connected himself with a good camp (TriStar Gym in Montreal and Greg Jackson in New Mexico), and his fight against Vera will be another exhibition of just how good this guy is. A win over Vera is just another step for Jones as he would be beating a good gatekeeper within the 205 division. I'll take Jones via a stoppage in the 2nd or 3rd. He'll get the fight to the ground because hes strong and a good Greco-Roman wrestler. Granted, Couture didnt get Vera on the ground easily, but then again I think Jones' size and strength should do the trick.

Junior dos Santos (10-1) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (15-4)

In another good matchup of young prospect versus veteran looking to rebound, we have heavyweight KO artist Junior dos Santos going up against Gabriel Gonzaga. For me, the fight is fairly easy to pick - Im taking dos Santos. Why? Because Gonzaga likes to throw on the feet. Despite the strong grappling pedigree, as of late it seems that he has been content to try and trade on the feet against other heavyweights. With that said, if he decides to trade with dos Santos, we're going to see one epic knockout. Cigano's hands are pure class and if Gonzaga looks to trade with dos Santos, this fight is over within the first round.

Cheick Kongo (19-5) vs Paul Buentello (27-11)

In another fight that should leave fans happy with a knockout, we have Cheick Kongo going up against Paul Buentello. Kongo is looking to rebound after a pair of losses that have really derailed his campaign for a heavyweight title shot. With a guy like Buentello, he has a fighter that is tailor made for him - someone who will look to stand and trade on the feet but also is smaller and almost exclusively uses his hands. Buentello has shown throughout his career to have problems with tall, stalking kickboxers (Overeem, Arlovski). I dont expect that trend to change all too much. Give me Kongo in the mid round to stop the fight.

Alessio Sakara (14-7) vs. James Irvin (14-5)

This fight should again be explosive. Dont really have too many insights into the fight other than I like Irvin to win via a KO. Irvin's the naturally bigger fighter. Yea, thats pretty much my analysis of the fight - give me the bigger guy. Sucks, I know, but Im just not very psyched for this fight like I am for the 3 that follow after.

So there be the picks! Enjoy that weekend of basketball and fighting! Should be a blast!

Until next time
-TheZar

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Pacquiao/Clottey and the Steroid Elephant

This Saturday sees the matchup of two of the best welterweight boxers in the world - international superstar, Manny Pacquiao, and Joshua Clottey, a boxer from Ghana whos known to never take a step back and has a chin made of granite. In terms of the fight itself, I expect Pacquiao to win this via late stoppage or unanimous decision. Clottey, despite being a worthy adversary for Pacquiao, just doesnt offer too much in terms of skill and ability to challenge Pacquiao's skill and speed.

Make no mistake however, Clottey is a dangerous fight for Pacquiao. Hes going to be the biggest fighter that Pacuqiao has ever faced in his career, but unlike Miguel Cotto or Oscar de la Hoya, there wont be any concern of dehydration because of weight cutting the night of the fight. As people who have watched the sport of boxing know, Joshua Clottey is a solid fighter and hes a fighter that no one looks good when fighting. He eats up your punches, hes always the one pressing the action, and he can pack a punch considering the fact that hes a BIG welterweight boxer (the fight on Saturday is set at the 147-pound limit, however most expect Clottey to enter the ring on fight night at around 160 pounds).

The Steroid Elephant

Now, although this fight will be a grand spectacle featuring one of the best boxers in the world in one of the biggest stages in North America (Dallas Cowboys Stadium), one cannot ignore how the fight came about. After the dismantling of Miguel Cotto, many expected that a fight between the world's two premier boxers, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr., was inevitable. However, at the negotiation table, the fight hit a snag that ultimately led to its cancellation -- the issue of steroid and performance-enhancement drug testing.

In brief, the story goes as follows: Prior to the Miguel Cotto fight, former boxer, trainer, and father of Floyd Jr., Floyd Mayweather Sr., voiced his opinion that Manny Pacquiao, as a result of his success and ability to carry his power through weight classes, must have been aided by the use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). A few months later, during the negotiations of the Floyd Jr-Manny fight, it appeared that the only snag in the whole process was the reluctance of Pacquiao to agree to the use of random-blood testing to test for PEDs up until the day before the fight - a process used in other sporting events such as the Olympics and the Tour de France. According to Pacquiao and his camp, this was unacceptable as Pacquiao believed the giving of blood too soon to the fight date weakens him and hurts his in-ring performance based on an earlier experience prior to his loss to Erik Morales. Mayweahter would not relent on his position of random testing, Pacquiao did not agree and the fight fell through with Pacquiao now fighting Joshua Clottey, and Floyd Jr. now fighting welterweight star, Shane Mosley, on May 1st.

Now, with all that said, gossip has swirled throughout the boxing community as to the reasons why Pacquiao did not simply give into the position that Floyd had asked for. By not simply agreeing to this random blood testing issue, Pacquiao would be passing up on one of the biggest paydays any professional boxer would see in history (approximately 25 million dollars to each fighter, possibly even more considering the pay-per-view sales the fight did). No right man would be sane enough to leave that money so Manny Pacquiao must be up to no good.

In response to this, I have a few comments to make (and it wont be brief, so bear with me):

1) To start, I agree that anyone who leaves that amount of money on the table is insanse. HOWEVER, one needs to remember that we arent dealing with just anyone. We are dealing with Manny Pacquiao - a guy who pretty much has it all in his life. First consider that Manny Pacquiao is arguably one of the 10 best fighters ever in boxing. The guy can claim championships at seven different weight classes, hes beaten at least 4 future Hall of Fame boxers (Oscar de la Hoya, Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Juan Manuel Marquez) and his boxing legacy is set. Financially, he is as well off as anyone could be. Hes earned millions through boxing, plus hes an advertising magnet, hes a media darling (as seen through his movies, TV shows, and music career all of which can be sampled on sites such as Youtube **but beware, it aint pretty :) ), and hes looking to win political office later this year (something that isnt out of the realm of possibility when you look at the political history of the Philippines). Plus, hes the savior of boxing, the man who has brought a spark to the sport lacking one since the days of Mike Tyson. The guy is set for life.

Now, whats all this have to do with the fight? Simple: Pacquiao's ego (whether anyone will admit it or not) has to be one of the biggest egos in the world. The guy can do no wrong and everyone seems to admire or at least respect the guy. Here in lies the problem: Floyd Mayweather and his camp have tried to challenge the legacy and name of Manny Pacquiao. Starting with Floyd Sr. accusations of PED use, the leaking of steroid stipulations and negotiations to the public, to Floyd Sr. calling Pacquiao's trainer and father figure, Freddie Roach, a "joke", it seems that the Mayweather camp has consistently tried to get under the skin of Pacquiao and his team.

This steroid consideration may have been the last straw. In a fight where both fighters should have been on display, it seemed that Mayweather and his camp have tried to make Pacquiao the secondary name on the marquee, to garner all the attention, and make Pacquiao an afterthought until fight night. In a fight where one would think it would be co-promoted between the two camps, it seemed that Mayweather didnt have the common sense to not try and embarrass his opponent, to keep his reservations to himself, and to keep the negotiation process private. By trying to publicly embarrass a fighter with as big an ego as Pacquiao, its no wonder why Pacquiao stood his ground and let the negotiation fall through.

2) This discussion of steroid testing should not be an issue at all. People who accuse Pacquiao of doping based on his reluctance to concede to Olympic-style testing are ignoring one thing --> NO ATHLETES IN ANY SPORT WILLFULLY ASK FOR/VOLUNTARILY GIVE INTO STIFFER TESTING PROCEDURES. Testing only improves in sport when the athlete violators become too many to ignore. Look through history and you see it everywhere: the Tour de France, the Olympics, Major League Baseball. Its only when the public outcry becomes too great to ignore and the sport begins to lose support and legitimacy that the governors of the sport step up and decide to do anything to reduce cheating.

Applying this to the sport of boxing and the fallout of Pacquiao-Mayweather, if there is anyone to blame for why that fight didnt happen in March, its the boxing commissions of the United States. Despite the fact that there have been instances of cheating within the sport among its most recognizable names (James Toney, Shane Mosley, Fernando Vargas), the sport has not adopted pro-active measures to stem cheating in the sport. If loading up a fighter's gloves is cheating, then PED use is cheating as well and should be dealt with in a serious manner. The commissions have made something that shouldnt be tolerated, non-negotiable, and ultimately a non-issue (cheating in sport using PEDs) into an issue by allowing fighters to negotiate how to test for cheating.

I cant judge Pacquiao as a dirty fighter based on his reluctance to random testing. Theres nothing to suggest it since his fight night weight has fluctuated some 5 pounds in the last 3 years. Hell, on the night of Pacquiao-Morales 1, he weighed in at 139 pounds. Thus since 2005, the guy has only added some 8 pounds to his frame so if you think hes getting bigger because of roids, he isnt really. Steroid testing was made a part of negotiations, it isnt something that is mandatory for all fighters to follow if they dont wish to. Floyd threw out something that could be negotiated. You either accept the term or not. Pacquiao didnt, Floyd didnt like it, move on. But again, if boxing commissions around the world would stiffen up their testing procedures, this wouldnt be an issue at all and we'd have a fight on our hands.

3) Lastly, just because the fight hadnt occurred this month does not mean the fight wont ever occur. If Pacquiao gets by Clottey and Floyd gets by Shane, the road is re-set again for another fight between the two late in 2010. Again, there is still going to be a lot of money to be made on the fight and I would expect that each fighter would want a slice of it. The thing that I would advise to Mayweather and his camp however is quite simple -- dont say anything to the public until the fight is signed. Talk all you want about yourselves or Pacquiao after the ink is dried, but before that happens, keep things respectful between the two of you. You screwed up once before, you dont want to do it again.

Thats it from me, if you liked what you read or want to bash what I just said, feel free to do so - Im all ears.

Until next time!

-TheZar

Saturday, March 6, 2010

James Toney: Why?!?!?

This past week, MMA and boxing bumped into each other as former pound-for-pound boxing champ and future hall of famer, James "Lights Out" Toney, signed a contract with the top organization in mixed martial arts, the UFC. As a long time fan of both sports, I decided I'd throw my two cents out there and say that this is absolutely ridiculous and a shame that Toney would do this to himself and that the UFC would allow this to happeng.

First things first, James Toney is an all time great in the sport of boxing. His technical expertise in the sport is unrivaled and a rarity in today's boxing community. The fact that he was competitive at the heavyweight ranks speaks to his superior knowledge of the sweet science. Years from now, we'll speak fondly of what Toney accomplished in the ring and his rare talents and abilities.

However, the James Toney of today is a mere shell of his former greatness. Here are the facts: the man is 41 years old, fighting at least 40 pounds over his natural weight (he did his best work in and around the 170 pound mark - today hes at least 220 pounds), and he hasnt had a meaningful fight in at least 2 years (Hasim Rahman, Sam Peter). Hes as close to an over the hill fighter looking for a final paycheck as you can get.

Heres the thing: casual (and maybe even hardcore) fans of the UFC will be told of all the accomplishments that Toney has achieved in his career. They'll be fed the narrative that hes a world-class boxer and be held as an example of what pro boxers can do in the MMA arena. However, all of that is far from the truth. James Toney is NOT a top heavyweight today. Hes been inactive from the elite title scene for years. And anyone who uses him as a model for what pro boxing can do in MMA are misinformed to say the least.

The truth is, until we fans see a current world champion enter the world of mixed martial arts, the example of boxing in MMA will be represented by either an over the hill world champion (see James Toney here) or some journeyman fighter (see Art Jimmerson). Neither are great examples of what boxing can or cannot do in MMA, but those type of fighters will have to do. Unless a Klitschko or Manny Pacquiao decide that they want to fight in MMA tomorrow, we will never get a true gauge of a world class pro boxer's effectivenss in the sport. Thing is, considering the fact that pro boxers make so much more in their sport comparative to even the top fighters within the UFC (and we're talking tens of millions versus barely over a million, if theyre lucky), we will never see a current boxing champ enter MMA.

James Toney in the UFC proves nothing with regards to the MMA vs boxing debate and will do more harm than good for the sport of mixed martial arts. In fact, no good comes with Toney signing with the UFC, unless you are the UFC itself and youre lining your pockets with pay-per view buys. Here are the scenarios: either Toney wins or he loses. Toney winning in MMA will only bring further questions about the legitimacy of the sport itself. Here you have an over the hill boxer competing on MMA's grandest stage - if he could win, how difficult is the sport really? Should Toney lose, it doesnt prove that MMA fighters are better than boxers, since (as Ive already said) the James Toney of today isnt the same James Toney of pound for pound glory. Taking it a bit further, should Toney lose and (God forbid) get seriously hurt, the UFC and MMA world have a whole lot of explaining to do.

Again, there are no reasons as to why Toney was signed to the UFC other than what hes accomplished several years ago. This signing was a simple money grab/publicity stunt put on by the UFC brass and anyone who doesnt see through to this are looking through beer goggles. Its a shame though since fans will eat it all up and the debate will continue to run around in circles without an end in sight.

**On a final note, be sure to watch WEC 47 - Bowles vs Cruz tonight. If youre lucky enough to live in Canada, you will be able to catch it on cable TV through TheScore network (granted, if you have that channel). The card also features former bantamweight kingpin, Miguel Torres fighting on the undercard so it should be a good night of fights. Dont miss out!**

Until next time!

-TheZar