UFC Preview: Edgar v. Henderson

This weekend, the UFC makes its long awaited return to Japan with a title fight in the lightweight division between the former WEC champion, Benson Henderson, and the UFC champion, Frankie Edgar.

In this fight, I foresee Edgar coming away with the victory. The big reason? Speed and boxing. Henderson is a great pressure fighter who imposes his size and wrestling ability to overwhelm his opponents. Problem with this however is that Edgar's skills negate these advantages. Frankie's speed is a huge asset for him. At his size, he naturally would fit in well at 145 rather than 155. However, he has held his own against bigger lightweights through his speed and ability to control distance on his feet with his boxing which should be considered among the best in MMA. Should bigger opponents try to utilize their wrestling ability to get the fight to the ground, Edgar's wrestling background has served him well to get back to his feet or prevent the takedown altogether (as evidenced in his fights with Gray Maynard).

I do think that Henderson's best strategy to winning this fight is to impose his size and wrestling against the cage and try to win the fight in the 4th and 5th rounds, using his endurance and athleticism to wear down the smaller Edgar. But in the end, I feel the more talented Edgar will win the fight in a very close, tightly contested fight, via decision. He just has too many tools in the arsenal for someone like Henderson, who is relatively one dimensional as a wrestler with average striking and power.

In the co-main event, Quinton Jackson faces off with Ryan Bader in a fight with major implications for the light-heavyweight division. Coming off his loss to champion Jon Jones, Rampage Jackson will be looking to rebound with a win to try and get back into the race for the title as soon as possible. Looking to give Rampage his second straight loss will be collegiate wrestling standout, Ryan Bader, who will be looking to win his second straight fight after losing the previous two.

The fight will be determined by who can dictate where the fight is fought. Rampage will look to keep the fight standing and utilize his boxing against Bader, who has shown a vulnerable chin and is at a disadvantage on the feet. In contrast, Bader will look to use his NCAA-championship level wrestling to take the fight to the ground where Rampage has shown to be less than capable. In the end, I believe Bader is able to impose his will and defeat the veteran via decision or stoppage via ground and pound.

Predictions for the other fights on the card:

Kongo over Hunt via stoppage
Shields over Akiyama via decision
Boetsch over Okami via TKO
Hioki over Palaszekski via decision
Lauzon over Pettis via submission

There be the fights, enjoy the weekend peoples!

-Saxed