This week sees a major UFC event with two title scenes receiving significant attention (FINALLY!!!). Went 3-1 in my picks last weekend with the UFC Live event, so Im looking to carry that momentum forward. Going to run through my picks and analysis of the fights so sit back, grab some fruit juice, grab a pen and paper, and lets do this!
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2) vs Dan Hardy (23-6)
In Georges' return fight from an injury he sustained against Thiago Alves (whose fight with Jon Fitch has been called off as a result of Alves failing some medical tests), Georges St. Pierre goes up against England's Dan Hardy. First things first, Hardy has been on a roll of wins as of late - having experienced his last loss back in December of 2007. He has been, more or less, successful in the UFC and has been impressive with his ability to pick his opponents apart in the standup game. Hes a good fighter.
My pick for this fight however is overwhelmingly in favour of GSP. Heres the problem I see with Hardy when he fights GSP - the gap between the two in terms of wrestling ability is like night and day. GSP's wrestling is arguably the best in MMA today. He has dominated the likes of NCAA All-American wrestlers like Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Dan Hardy on the other hand had trouble in dealing with a savvy grappler like Akihiro Gono. I think by the 2nd round, people will soon realize just how outclassed Dan Hardy is when he goes up against GSP. I have GSP winning in a landslide, within 3 rounds if he wants to using an aggressive wrestling and ground and pound strategy.
UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-4) vs Shane Carwin (11-0)
In the fight that Im most looking forward to on the 27th, we have an interim championship fight at heavyweight with the winner being the number one contender for Brock Lesnar later this year. Whats great about these interim fights is that although theyre better at determining a number one contender than a definitive champion at a division, the fight gives fans a 5-round fight rather than the relatively short 3-rounders.
In terms of the fight itself, we have an intriguing battle between a good submission guy (Mir) and a good wrestler (Carwin), both of whom like to stand and trade punches. Mir looked impressive in his last few bouts against Minotauro Noguiera and Chieck Kongo, using his good boxing skills to defeat both fighters. In addition, Mir has looked bigger and stronger in his last fights since losing to Brock Lesnar as he tries to bulk up and move closer to the 265-pound mark that Lesnar cuts down to at the weigh-ins.
Carwin has looked just as impressive in his bouts at the UFC. Despite having a background in wrestling, he has rarely shown that skill as all of his bouts have displayed his punching power. Since debuting 5 years ago, Carwin has finished each of his 11 opponents within 2 rounds, never going the distance in his career. In his three fights in the UFC, which includes a win over former heavyweight contender Gabriel Gonzaga, he has used his explosive punching power to defeat his opponents.
In this fight, I expect it to start and end on the feet. I think Carwin will look to land a big right hand like hes shown in previous fights, while Mir will look to try and pick apart Carwin's defense. In the end, I like Mir to defeat Carwin via a KO or TKO. I think Mir's shown that his boxing skill is probably the best within the heavyweight division and he shouldnt be too intimidated by Carwin's power - again, he beat Kongo and Minotauro who have good boxing skills and power. Mir is a big step up for Carwin in terms of talent level. I just dont like his odds if all he has is a puncher's chance.
Ben Saunders (8-1-2) vs Jake Ellenberger (23-5)
I like Ellenberger and his wrestling more than I like Saunders' standup. Give me Ellenberger via the decision.
Jim Miller (16-2) Mark Bocek (8-2)
Both guys are really good at wrestling and submissions, Miller is the favourite, but Bocek is from my neck of the woods - give me Bocek with the upset via submission.
Kurt Pellegrino (20-4) vs Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
Pellegrino's a good wrestler, but Camoes has a good pedigree in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is coming off a nice string of wins. Give me Camoes by whatevs.
Anyways, there be the picks! Enjoy the fights and make sure to come back for the picks on UFC's Ultimate Fight Night on Wednesday!
-TheZar
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