Breaking Down Shogun vs. Jones

March 19 will be a significant date in the history of MMA as it will either solidify one fighter as an all-time great in the sport or signify the birth of a new super-star in the sport. Without further adieu, lets break down the main event of UFC 128.

Shogun v. Jones

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, former PRIDE Grand Prix champion and current holder of the UFC’s light heavyweight belt goes into arguably the toughest fight of his career against MMA’s uber-prospect Jon “Bones” Jones. In fact, as I write this sentence, Bones is a considerable favourite over the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist (-200 for Jones, Shogun at +160 according to one reputable online sportsbook). Why does the champion look to be the underdog in this fight? There are several good reasons.

For Shogun, the key to his success is in his Muay Thai and his ability to break his opponent down in the standup game, particularly with low kicks followed up with flurries of punches and knees from the clinch. However, there are two considerable issues that Shogun will need to face upon entering the octagon – size and wrestling.

With size, Jones will enjoy a considerable height (3 inches; 6’4 Jones vs. 6’1 Rua) and reach advantage (8.5 inches; 84.5 for Jones vs. 76 for Rua) over his adversary. The size difference will make it extremely difficult for Rua to land many effective strikes on his opponent. With wrestling, Shogun has shown to have had problems in his career against fighters who have a relatively good grappling game as all 3 losses in his career have come up against fighters with a grappling background (Mark Coleman, Babalu Sobral and Forest Griffin). Even in the rematch between Shogun and a much older Mark Coleman, Rua found himself struggling against the veteran wrestler, needing a late 3rd round KO to gain the victory. Jon Jones on the other hand is a former state and national wrestling champion at the high school and collegiate levels who just defeated Ryan Bader, a former collegiate wrestling champion himself, in a dominating performance.

In essence, this is as bad a matchup for Shogun that he could face – an adversary who will make it hard to exploit against with his strengths who will also look to exploit his own weaknesses on the ground. So how does Shogun solve the Jones puzzle? I believe that if Shogun ends up victorious on Saturday night, it will be a result of an early knockout or stoppage as a result of strikes. I think from the word go, Shogun will need to look to counter off of any strikes that Jones tries to throw and hope something solid connects which he can then look to finish off of. Shogun obviously has the power in his repertoire as a fighter, indicated by his 16 knockouts from his 19 wins. And as shown from the finish of the Machida rematch, Rua is certainly able to counter the strikes of an unorthodox opponent. For those who don’t recall, Rua countered off of a lead left by Machida by an overhand right which knocked Machida to the ground leading to the finish of the fight. So, the formula to success is there for Shogun.

In addition, early in any fight most fighters are looking to find their range and see what their opponent is trying to do. Against a relative standup novice in Jones, who although impressive and flashy with his strikes, is not as technically gifted as Shogun, one could expect Rua to try and jump in and counter off of a lazy Jones lead jab or kick. This is especially true early in the fight when nerves may hit the young Jones. Expect Shogun to time a lazy jab (or even a lead left like Machida had tried) with a flurry of punches looking to connect with one haymaker to end the fight.

Now, with all that said, am I taking Shogun to win this fight? The answer: simply no. In the end, I believe Jones will win this battle and (in my opinion) win this fight in convincing fashion. The reason is quite simple: wrestling. I think come March 19, the game plan set by Jones and his trainer, Greg Jackson, will be quite simple – once you see an opening, go for the takedown and start with the ground and pound. If we know anything about Greg Jackson and his fighters, it is that they will look to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents (see Georges St. Pierre vs. anyone else here). As stated earlier, Shogun has shown in his losses that on the ground he will struggle. Jones is arguably the best wrestler Shogun will face in his career given his ability combined with size and athleticism. It does not require much insight to know what Greg Jackson is thinking what Jones will need to do against Shogun in order to win the fight.

In the end, I expect Jones to shoot for a takedown once he has the opportunity to close the distance safely. From there, expect Jones to grind out a victory using punches and elbows.

As great a champion as Shogun has been in his career, the combination of size, athleticism, wrestling, and Jackson game planning should all prove to be too much. Since his introduction to MMA and the UFC, people have touted Jon Jones as a future champion at light heavyweight and a possible two-weight title holder along the likes of Randy Couture. On March 19, I believe the future will finally arrive and Jones will be a UFC title holder.